REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 41
17 – 28 FEBRUARY 2023
The well-known diplomatic analyst, Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on the four major events in only 1000 words
1.Peace and security without Russia! This was the major message of the 59th International Security Conference ( Munich, 17 – 19 February 2023). Attended by 40 Heads of State/Governments, 100 ministers, dozens of political and security experts, 1000 journalists supervised by 5.000 policemen!
It was the first Conference without Russia on the eve of the First Anniversary of its unprovoked aggression against Ukraine.
Certainly, the war there, its prospects and the odds for a cease-fire were the central topic of the Conference and events on its sidelines. If until last year the prevailing idea was that « there can be no security without Russia” the opposite occured now. Currently, the international community and the West, in particular are acting to safeguard security, peace and stability not only without Russia, but also under its ongoing threats, including the nuclear ones. As for mediation and peace plans, plus the 12 Point Chinese Position, it was clearly stated in Munich and later that this is up only to Putin. If he withdraws and accepts Ukrainian’s conditions with the relevant guarantees and even the deputinisation of the Russian regime, ok, otherwise the sole single alternative remains the uncompromised struggle to the end and the victory in the battle field. Only then the sides can sit on the table of negotiations to decide on sustainable peace terms. Therefore, the West has been reflecting and strengthening its political, diplomatic and military unity and cohesion by escalating the multifaceted support to Ukraine with well-known facts for the public, including the 10th Package of Sanctions on 24 February by the EU and other aids for Ukraine on the first anniversary of Russian aggression.
Thanks to these financial and military aids by the USA, the EU and other big democratic powers, actually Ukraine exceeds the Russian war budget of 90 Billion Euro annually. This is understandable, since we are not talking anymore on a war between two neighbouring states, but between the good and the evil, democracy and dictatorship, aggressor and the attacked.
2. Biden in Ukraine like Kenedy in Berlin! On 20 February, the US President, Joe Biden made an unexpected visit in Kiev. As the international media reported, it was similar to the historic visit by President Kenedy 60 years ago in Berlin, the greatest confrontation line between East and West, as Kiev currently. With telling and sounding messages of US and Western help, support and solidarity. It occurred only 4 days ahead of the first anniversary of the Russian aggression and Putin’s speech. Look the tremendous difference – Biden and USA as “ guests” in Kiev and Warsaw, the incarnation of the best western values and principles, heralds of the future in peace, security and democracy; whereas Putin alone there in Moscow, as cruel aggressor and invader, the representative of imperialist and autocratic mentalities.
President Biden gave the same messages also during his visit in Warsaw. Thanks to its stands, Poland has considerably enhanced its image in the Western Alliance. Suffice it to mention that it provides 5 per cent of its GDP, the highest figure to NATO! Leaving behind France and Germany after some geopolitical incertain attitudes and delays. However, these Polish patriotic positions should be accompanied and strengthened with Euro – Atlantic values related to democracy and the rule of law.
3.Tokyo overshadowed by McGonigal!
On 20 – 24 February, Prime Minister Edi Rama was on an official visit in Tokyo; actually it is no surprise with such friendly country as Japan with which we are free from any problem. This was clearly seen in the fact that again the Prime Minister tried to reach public attention largely with photos and jokes, which nevertheless have lost much of their previous power. This applies even to the toast he raised there with our traditional drink “raki”, with a Panda and the albanian compatriot who was not happy with life in Japan and has decided to return to his Nivica in the south. It seemed as if the visit served PM Rama much more to stay on the shade, away from the political and media fuss provoked by the latest scandal of McGonigal.
This is why this time, even the immense Japan capital was overshadowed by the above-mentioned scandal, which is also known by the high Japanese hosts. Unfortunately, everwhere PM Rama would go these days, this unprecedented scandal will chase him in every step abroad until the full clarification of the situation which is escalating and it will take time to settle.
4.No news is good news! This can be said about the much expected meeting Vuçic – Kurti on 27 February in Brussels. Awaited with high hopes and expectations for finding out a common tongue and signing the agreement on the normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, following the model of two Germanies in the 70s. Although chances seem to produce more problems than solve them.
There was no signature, only a half-voiced Yes and then “ just postpone it again” They will return to “ shuttle diplomacy” in Pristina, Belgrade, Skopje, Brussels, and elswhere, in an effort to sign the deal. But then it will be the annexes for its implementation with numerous technical details; which reminds us the saying “ the devils hides behind the details”
Both President Vuciç and PM Kurti were in Brussels in delicate positions, particularly Kurti, who was subject to the largest political pressure by both the USA and the EU. Due to the fact that they continue to treat Belgrade as “ mother’s” and Pristina as “ stepmother’s son” Unfortunately, this is the bitter reality there, albeit beautiful words and diplomatic euphemisms. Otherwise, no one can explain how is the Association of the Commune with Serbian Majority going to be established before Serbia recognizes even informally Kosovo and its UN membership, as it happened with two Germanies in 1973, only 6 months after signing the agreement on the normalization of their relations. Moreover that, in this respect, Serbia has only the “ straw keys in hand”; since it is the UN Security Council which decides, where Russia and China have opposing interests with the West. Not to mention that 5 EU Member States that have given no signal about their Kosovo’s possible recognition. Yet, let us hope for the best!
© 2023 Argumentum
