REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 69
1 – 16 MAY 2024
On 4 major diplomatic events briefly with only 1.000 words by
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Diplomacy of scharm and courtesy was noted from 5 – 10 May during the state visit by the Chinese Presdident Xi Jinping in Paris, Belgrade and Budapest. A welcomed event reflected also at ARGUMENTUM with deep insights by well-known experts in this field. Therefore, here we just need to emphasize that this visit incarnated the “ charm and courtesy diplomacy”. It was calm, friendly and with messages of understanding and cooperation among the three European leaders and the Chinese President. Yes, there were problems and warnings too, especially in Paris but in every case with a moderate and cautious language. Albeit the frictionss and differences between the USA, EU and China, their shared geopolitical interests are much larger. Let us say bluntly that without China and its cooperation, the major challenges of our time cannot be met. True, China has its own problems and deficits, but it owes nothing to western states fo their large economic dependence. The latter are becoming aware of that and are correcting their past policies, however not by blaming China for their own “sins”.
This was also mirrored in the fact that this visit was made with the highest protocol ceremonials. The messages forwarded, dozens of signed agreements and the lack of any diplomatic incident made it possible the prevailance of the smile, scharm and “soft power” diplomacy. This bodes well for the future, but it certainly requires hard work and continuous efforts in all areas and possibly with less ultimatums and sanctions.
2.Political summer in Athens and Ankara! This can be said after the cordial meetings between President Erdogan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Ankara on 13 May. This visit followed many debates and diplomatic rows up to military threats between these two NATO member states. However, following the devastation earthquake in Turkey, Greece showed its full-fledged solidarity and through the “ earthquake diplomacy” apparently they left behind conflicts and a new era of cooperation started between them. The landsliding victory of the two leaders in last year elections “sealed” the new spirit of understanding and friendly cooperation, although many problems are still there crying out for solution. This is also due to many major challenges which these two states representing the southern NATO wing in the Mediterranean are facing.
This was clearly visible also in the topics and talks held, free from any incident as previously with a moderate political language and in an warm friendly atmosphere. Thus, together with the new spring, a new political and diplomatic summer is blooming in Athens and in Ankara. A welcome development for the western alliance, these two states and our region by and large.
3.In the Balkans or in Brussels? This is the new political dilemma after the electoral catastrophe of the Social – Democratic Leage on 8 May in Northern Macedonia. After 7 years in opposition, it is the nationalists of VMRO-DPMNE and the Albanian coalition “VLEN“ that will govern there. However, the new President, elected with a plebiscitary vote, Gordana Svilanovska Dankova made a bad start on the swear in office when she did not put “ Northern” to “ Macedonia”, raising a storm in Athens, Sofie and in Brussels. Likewise, her statement “ first Balkans and then Brussels” leaves room for suspicions, guesses and reservations. It is known that this party has been against Prespa Agreement and the one on the constitutional amendments for the Bulgarian minorities. But now it is faced directly with the geopolitical dilema to proceed pro or agaist it, i.e. will Skoje be locked up in the Balkans or will it move to Brussels in whose doors it has been knocking in the last 20 years? The long 15 year old deadlock after the Greek veto and two years from Sofia show that the European path is the only alternative that leads somewhere. The other gives votes but loses the European perspective and takes the votes back. Let us wait and hope for the best for our neighbour.
4.The new summer political theatre in Kotor! On15/16 May, Montenegero opened the curtains of what we have nicknamed ” the political summer regional theatre” with frequent summits and forums. This time, the stage was in Kotor, under the auspices of the new government there. In fact, that is the only country that has not hosted such theatrical shows. We have seen them in the past years in Skopje, Ohrid, Bled, Brno, Zagreb and now their geography is extended.
They are like theatre shows because as time has proved, they have produced nothing new at these summits started over 20 years ago. At that time with the good purpose to foster the climate, the ground the atmosphere to move forward through regional top level contacts and forums. However, in the recent years, thanks to increased multilateral relations and events, the leaders of our region meet almost every week in the region and in every corner of the world up to the UN. Hence, forums and summits with sounding names have mushroomed. This is also due to the friendly competition by many countries to host such summits. In the last three years it is also the EU and the Berlin Process that are doing this in the Western Balkans. The latest EU/regional Summit was in Tirana less than three months ago, on the same topic as five other summits ” the EU growth plan”.
The irony is that the more summits are hosted in the region, Brussels and elsewhere, the less results are there while the situation goes from bad to worse. Just see the dialogue Serbia – Kosovo, relations between Skopje and Sofia, Tirana – Pristina, problems in the Montenegro, the deadlock in the accession negotiations and one is easily persuaded for this dark reality; unfortunately, neither has the presence of high dignitaries from the USA helped improve things except speeches, promises, and political prayers.
And it cannot be otherwise when after so many years the foundations for an atmospere and climate of understanding and cooperation are not yet in place in our region.
Therefore, all these political theatrical shows in the region that will continue during the summer months and even beyond will hardly bring anything new, apart from political tourism, drinks and delicacies. Certainly, a little relax and regional refreshment for its leaders, away from the political heat in their capitals.
© 2024 Argumentum
