REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 60
17 NOVEMBER – 1 DECEMBER 2023
On the four major diplomatic events briefly with only 1.000 words by the well-known analyst,
Dr. JORGJI KOTE
1. From bad to worse in Berlin! This can be said after the latest visit by the Turkish President Erdgon in Berlin on 17 November. Amidst a great political and diplomatic tension, with plenty of suspicions and objections for this visit, which was not expected to bring any change. However, as a NATO member and with many realpolitik interests, the top German leadership received Erdogan with the red carpet. But he went on with his messages in support of Hamas, considering it again as “ liberator” and accusing Israel. He did also openly attack the top German hosts, stating that Germany is indebted to Israel due to its history with Holocaust; that is why Berlin is not free vis à vis Israel, whereas Ankara has no debt to Tel Aviv, so it is free in her opinions.
Thus, Erdogan’s visit in Berlin not only did not bring any good news, but it created a new strong split in the Atlantic Alliance. Then he continued by postponing the ratification of Swedish NATO accession.
2. Hands off Western Balkans!! This was the grand message given by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during his three – day visit in Western Balkans and in the meeting with its 6 leaders on 22 November in Skopje. NATO follows attentively and with concern the moves by Belgrade and Moscow with their war-mongering policies, designed to open a new battlefield in the Balkans, after Ukraine and Near East; this would mostly serve Russia, both in its propaganda and in the war against Ukraine. Stoltenberg made this clear also to Vuçiç and Dodik.
Likewise, in the meeting of the NATO Foreign Ministers in Brussels on 28 – 29 November, Stoltenberg and the US Secretary of State Mr. Blinken declared that NATO will be in Western Balkans and in Northern Kosovo in every moment. And this not only with political statements but with troops reinforcements there, KFOR increased presence and the response in case of an escalation of situation. Now it is up to the EU and to the USA to entirely change their wrong appeasement policy vis à vis Serbia; why not, “showing down also their teeth and muscles” if necessary, with “ stick” first and then carrots.
3. Electoral expansion of the far right! Yes, this is the reality now everywhere After its victory in Italy, Sweden, Finland and recently in Slovakia, on 19 November it was the turn for Argentina, this mega state to show the far right offensive against the classic right and left. Even before the convincing victory of Trump’s twin in Buenos Aires, Mr. Milaney has warned the demolition of almost the whole political and economic system. Then, on 22 November, the far right scored another glamorous victory in the Netherlands, defeating the socialists of Franc Timmermans, the former Vice President of the EU Commission. The leader of the far right is well-known, Geert Wilders, a staunch ally of Le Pen, Meloni and other ultra nationalists. He has warned even the exit from the EU although recently it seems he has given up this idea, the interruption of aids for Ukraine and a strong anti-migration course. In the face of these defeats, the EU has almost capitulated, consoling itself with the fact that at least there will be no Dutch exit. Actually, the far right is in fashion, it is becoming like the snow – ball effect, beating the traditional political establishments that are out of touch with the realities in their countries and beyond.
Moreover, this revanschism from the far right is occurring only a few months ahead of the European and American elections ( June and November 2024) and when Trump may come back to power. Now, as to the fact that the far right does not have a better and more convincing alternatives, this does not mater so much for the electorates. Suffice it to mention that they just voice out their anger against the traditional political parties. “Lets get rid of them first then let the world fall down”! This is also the blame of the EU and the traditional political forces that continue untroubled to pursue the principle “ business as usual”!.
4.Organization of European ( non) security? On 30 November – 1 December in Skopje was held the Meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Organization for European Security and Cooperation ( OSCE). On that occasion, Northern Macedonia handed over its chairmanship to Malta. During this meeting, unlike the previous euphoria, especially during our chairmanship in 2020 they talked with a great deal of concern on the future OSCE’s role. Established in 1975 as the only most important high level forum for the dialogue between West and East, OSCE has been playing a significant role in the democratization processes. However, the Russian aggression against Ukraine has raised a bigh question mark to its role and functions.
Because Russia, apart from being a permanent member of the UN Security Council is also founding member and until 24 February 2022 a pillar of security and economic cooperation. But actually it seems that OSCE is at a deadlock, since it cannot make or “ sell” any more moral when one or two of its states openly threaten and sabotate its fundamental mission. Therefore, this meeting was expected with a great deal of interest, since there was also present the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. However, his presence beame an “apple of discord”. Ukrainian Foreign Minister and out of solidarity his three colleagues from Baltic states boycotted this meeting, provoking in this way problems and casting big shadows over its future.
Over a year ago, 47 European states have established the European Political Community, which is however far away from OECE in all aspects. Most imoprtantly, it seems that no one is working on it. There is only summits till now, with no agenda, stateements and decisions, being reduced just to a top level non-governmental organization.
Finally, in 1973, our communist regime rejected the invitation to join OSCE calling it the conference of “ non-security, since it was the USA and Soviet Union that threatened peace and security in Europe. However, the irony is that half of this ideological prophecy became true.
© 2023 Argumentum