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REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 53
1 – 15 SEPTEMBER 2023
Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 6 major diplomatic events in only 1000 words
1.Pacifying without reconciliation! This was what President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani could achieve during her official visit in Albania on 4 – 5 September. At least quiet meetings without incidents, with a pacifying spirit after summer traumas. This occurred in the meetings with President Begaj, Speaker Nikolla and Prime Minister Rama. With carefully codified messages, without referrence to the summer incidents between the two Prime Ministers, because as they say « in the house of the hanged man don’t mention the rope”! She did well, approaching and appeasing.
As for reconciliation, it is far away. But the “ ball is in Tirana’s field” to avoid the summer errors, the draft association, the proposal for an international conference on Kosovo, holding the joint meeting of the two governments; above all abandon the pro-serbian track and return to the traditional cooperation with Kosovo, as absolute priority in foreign policy. Not by instisting “as a mule” on the erroneous summer attitudes, speaking « ex catedra » or through fb postings but with concrete and discrete steps and actions, without noise and glamour, a dialogue between brothers.
2. »Kurti’s autogoal» was the unneccesary and hastened announcement on 10 september that Greece is closer to the recognition of Kosovo. Although Kurti argued this major expectation with some positive Greek steps – the invitations for him, the the visit by the Greek FM in Pristina, the activity of the Liaison Office in Athens and others. However, the next day, Greece denied tis prophecy. Defying thus Kurti who apparently has not yet realized that in diplomacy one cannot bring out in public the talks in the corridors of power.
They remain in official channels, they are processed until everything would be ready for possible Kosovo’s recognition from Greece, which in fact has was mentioned long ago but without result. Caution from this autogoal, PM Kurti!
3. Balkans summer theatre continues! In the previous “Realpolitik” we hoped that regional summits that are reduced to summer theatrical shows would stop with season’s end. We were wrong! On 11 September, it was the turn for Skopje to host the Presidential meeting of the Initiative Brdo – Brion. Although slovenian- Croatian, it is a floating event in the region, political marketing for the diplomacy of these two countries not wanting to lag behind others. The same scenario& scheme, the same old tune and agenda; nothing new, apart from the old boring refrain that hardly anyone one wants to hear.
Moreover, there was no ‘ big shot” present there from Brussels or Washington, not any bombastic statement for the media, as it was the case in Bled with the fairy tale by Charles Michel on “ Western Balkans in EU 30”! What a pity that they spend so much time and funding for such a “ political tourism” which has become totally unnecessary in the region; they are just « talk and eating » with WB leaders “making the spoon ready” for the next post – summer theatrical show!
4. Between G – 7 and BRICS 11! This can be said after the G-20 Summit in New Delhi on 9 – 10 September. With the known themes, and without any clear-cut condemnation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Except a sentence on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries, but “without laying the finger on the wound”!! A disappointment for Ukraine, but something expected after the recent developments. G – 20 took place only a few days after the ASEAN Summit, where 10 of its states joined BRICS in its attempts to dedollarise their economies and join BRICS agaist the West. Meanwhile, in its Summit on 22 – 24 August, 6 other great states joined the 5 existing BRICS members ( Brasil, Russia, India, China and South Africa; besides, over 15 other states are in the “waiting queue” for membership.
Thus, BRICS now with 11 member states enters between the G-7 and G-20, defying and seriously endangering their operation and consensus. Let us emphasize that this was the second consecutive G-30 Summit without consensus on its central topic, i.e. the Russian aggression. This was good news for Putin and Xi Jingping and bad news for he West, which let us accept that the founding of BRIC in 2009 found it unaware! The agreement among the USA, India and Saudi Arabia to build a huge railroad netwerok was pacifying for the West, as a counterweight against the Chinese intiative “ One belt, one road”. Yet, too little for the West and a diplomatic success for BRICS India!
5. Speech for the campaign 2024! Such was indeed the address by the EU Commission President on 13 September in Strasburg. She satisfied all and the Balkans although only with general promises” on the air”. It is not surprising that this speech did not find the expected echo in the international media and politics. This is because von der Leyen spoke mainly for herself; namely for her intention to be reconfirmed in this post in the European elections 2024 or even as a candidacy for NATO Secretary General. Hence, her speech “ The state of the Union” was political personal marketing with the logo” All is well with Ursula”!
6. Expected failure turned out to be the much expected meeting in Brussels on 14 September between Prime Minister Kurti and President Vuçiç. The EU mediators did their best for a pozitive and hopeful outcome from this meeting. Even though the developments hitherto, especially the Serb attitudes and Vuçiç swears against Kosovo did not leave room for any little progress. Without dwelling on its well-known topics, it is proper to repeat with a loud voice that the EU and the USA do not have any chance of success as they are doing.
Let us be clear: without giving up their approach “ with carrot and no stick” for Belgrade and without being fair with more “ carrot than stick” for Kosovo; then without any promise for recognition by Belgrade but only with the dreadful association nothing can be expected from this long dialogue. It is surprising indeed that the USA and the EU do not understand the several and serious warnings that their appeasement diplomacy versus Belgrade and coercive diplomacy versus Pristina is wrong and bound to fail, and this is occurring right now.
© 2023 Argumentum
