Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « i’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 5 major diplomatic events in only 1000 words
REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 56
1 – 17 OCTOBER 2023
1.The whole Brussels in Kiev! This happened on 2 October when the 27 EU Foreign Ministers “ landed” in Kiev for their Informal Summit. With major solidarity messages with Ukraine and its European future. This meeting was very significant due to the geopolitical momentum in which it took place; in USA, after approving with many difficulties the provisional federal budget, the aids for Ukraine were not included; on 24 September serb armed gangs attacked Northern Kosovo sparkling a new sharp conflict there; in Slovakia came again in power the populist pro-russian leader Robert Fico.
These events and in gereral a veakening of willingess among western allies have casted shadows on the future aids for Ukraine. This is why that meeting was a “tranquilizing pill” for the time being.
2. The third is not true! This can be said about the European Politican Community ( EPC) held in Granada Spain on the 5fth of October with the attendance of 47 heads of states/governments. As usual with the “ spoon in belt” with” ”talk and eating” bilateral meetings, family photos, messages largely for Ukraine, at the presence of its President Zelenski. A year ago EPC held its first summit in Bratislava and this June in Moldova. However, no change, no steering structure, not even a press release, nothing new for this major grouping that was launched with so much glamour. Moreover and ironically, things are going from bad to worse this year. Look at 24th of September in Northern Kosovo and the fightings for Nagorno Karabak between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
However, their two Presidents were not in the summit to talk in the EPC format. Neither did President Vjosa Osmani meet President Vuçiç and no new emphasis on Ukraine, evenmore with hesitations from certain EU Member States. Thus, this Summit did not confirm the proverb “ the third is true”!
3. Heads high but hands empty! A day later, on 6 October, again in Granada was held the EU Informal Summit. Advertised glamorously for its two expected novelties related to the possible EU Enlargement in December to Ukraine&Western Balkans and a draft-accord on migration “ the Achile’s heel” for the EU but without any outcome. There was opposition on both these topics with reservations from Hungary and Poland. But there is no time to wait. If enlargement maybe postponed and this can be justified and covered with nice words, migration is pressing and a “ time bomb” for the situation is getting worse than in 1 milion asylum -seekers have entered Europe, mainly in Italy and the figures may grow even more during winter. Therefore, as they say, the EU leaders went in Granada with heads high but left it empty handed.
4. Hamas terror, a democratic and diplomatic failure! The unprecedented acts of Hamas terror against hundreds of innocent civilians have caused large waves of hatred and indignation worldwide, condemning it with the harshest tones. There is no justification for these terror acts. Therefore, quite correctly, enjoying the solidarity of other peoples, including Albania, Israel is taking proper measures to restore the situation, to guarantee peace, security and stability. Meanwhile, discussions and analyses continue on the “ whys” of what happened in Gaza which will be certainly be intensified in the coming weeks and months.
Because right on this 6 October, 50 years after the 6-day War and 30 years after the signature of the Peace Accord of Oslo which Hamas has never recognized shows many things. It testifies the dreadful escalation of extremism, populism and the failure of western diplomacy after some previous achievements; as well as its latest attempts to ensure stability among major actors in Middle East but by bypassing rhe correct demands of the Palestinian people for their own state, as it was agreed in 1948 in the UN. Meanwhile, 6 Ocober proved the failure of famous Israeli Mossad, the security and army. Moreover, the recent Israeli government has underestimated Hamas, given the wrong idea that Hamas would not dare to engage in a war against Israel but just deal with distributing aids to the poor people in Gaza! This is due to Israeli government’s failures particularly by Prime Minister Netaniahu who recame in power last December after many affairs and scandals of corruption and abuse with power. Despite that, he continues with his populist attitudes, attacking democracy and the rule of law by damaging justice and judiciary; this has produced large waves of protest in Israel in defence of democracy. He did also ignore the several warnings even from his own associates, including the Fefence Minister, who was was sacked but retaken after mass protests. Meanwhile, Israeli democracy is suffering from many attacks especially in the last 2 – 3 years, after 4 early general elections were conducted within the last two years with shaky governments in place. This has considerably weakened the social and political cohesion of Israeli society. Certainly, the proper lessons wil be drawn from these failures in Tel Aviv, in western chancellaries nd elsewhere; because stability without democracy is sham, weak and provisional!
5. Berlin marked the end of absurd dualism! It goes beyond doubt that the greatest achievement of the Berlin Process Summit in Tirana on 16 October was that it marked the end of absurd dualism by “ Open Balkans” which had become very dangerous. Time confirmed the insights and predictions also here in ARGUMENTUM that “Open Balkans” remained closed and an overlap to Berlin Process, a defiance to the EU and a diplomatic immense error. Instead of uniting, it has divided us even within one another. It proved that no regional initiative can work without Kosovo on board. The presence of leaders from Germany, Spain, Greece, the 6 region leaders and the two EU presidents, the first visit in Tirana by French President Macron and other events indicated the great disparity with “Open Balkans” format.
This Summit issued significant messages on the economic area but also on reforms, as an indispensable condition for the European support. Besides, Berlin Process should help to create the proper spirit and climate for dialogue, understanding and mutual trust; above all, the strengthening of democracy and the rule of law. Without these reforms whatever else however important would be Nil!
© 2023 Argumentum
