By: Tena Prelec, Nikolaos Tzifakis, Dimitar Bechev
The final brief of BiEPAG’s Geopolitics of the Green Energy Transition project explores the EU’s role in promoting the energy transition in the Western Balkans. Despite the EU’s commitment to climate action and extensive financial assistance, the region’s progress in adopting renewable energy sources remains slow. The study, based on a comprehensive survey and three in-depth case studies of external influence in the energy sector, reveals a public desire for green transition but a lack of awareness regarding the negative impact of external actors like Russia, China, and Turkey. The analysis underscores the crucial role of local elites in mediating foreign influence and highlights disparities in public perceptions. Recommendations include a targeted public diplomacy campaign, support for civil society actors advocating green energy, diversification of energy sources, financial incentives for market liberalisation, increased transparency in foreign investments, and regional cooperation for grid interconnection and renewable investments. The findings emphasise the need for nuanced policy measures to ensure a sustainable and equitable green energy transition in the Western Balkans.
Can the EU be a ‘green leader’ in the Balkans?
The EU sees itself as a global leader on fighting climate change and promoting environmental sustainability. These objectives are not only pursued internally but also profoundly shape the Union’s relations with the outside world. While there may be many areas where EU member states disagree, they are united in pushing for a global curb on greenhouse gas emissions. Nowhere is this ambition more visible than in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood. For well over a decade, Brussels has advanced energy market reforms geared toward increasing efficiency, lowering prices for consumers, and ensuring reliability of supply.
The Western Balkans, alongside candidate countries in Eastern Europe such as Moldova and Ukraine, have been the prime target of this policy. In recent years, the focus has shifted from energy security to climate policy. The leaders of the six Western Balkan countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia – pledged at a November 2020 gathering under the auspices of the EU-backed Berlin process to “commit to work towards the 2050 target of a carbon-neutral continent together with the EU through mainstreaming a strict climate policy and reforming [the] energy and transport sectors”.1 The Energy Community, a regional cooperation platform supported by the EU, has set targets that, by 2030, 31% of gross final energy consumption should come from renewable sources, energy intake should be capped, and greenhouse gas emissions should be cut by over 60% compared to 1990s levels.2 External funding through the EU’s Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance and the Western Balkans Investment Framework, a partnership between the EU and international financial institutions, also prioritises green objectives. Unfortunately, the Western Balkans’ record on the green transition is mixed. Little success has been achieved on either modernising the region’s energy sector or cutting emissions.
By and large, Western Balkan countries remain dependent on coal. At present, lignite accounts for about 70% of the electricity produced in the region. In Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina the share stands at 95%, 67% and 65% respectively.3 In addition, there is little new investment in the sector. The average age of the lignite fleet, which makes up around half of generation capacity and more in production, is over 40 years,4 and the electricity systems of several countries have come close to collapse over the past few winters. Coal power plants drive up greenhouse gas emissions but are also one of the causes of poor air quality and have severe health impacts. The deadlock on the ground is being exploited by external geopolitical actors, including Russia, China, and Turkey, which have all carved out niches in the political, economic, and energy sectors of the region. Western Balkan governments have accepted this in the hope of generating employment, collecting and redistributing rents for their political clienteles, and keeping energy prices low for the population at large.
Meanwhile, the EU is playing catch up, trying to induce compliance in countries where either the political will or state capacity to implement ambitious public policies is lacking. Building on a survey of popular perceptions, the present study finds that Western Balkan publics support the green transition but do not fully appreciate the EU’s contribution to the attainment of that goal. In addition, they fail to notice the negative influence of certain foreign investments in the region’s energy sector. This said, we should avoid the fallacy of assigning most of the blame for the slow pace of the energy transition to foreign investors. Drawing on fieldwork and a series of interviews by BiEPAG members with stakeholders in the energy sectors of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo, we argue that the main responsibility for the lack of progress rests with national governments. The study concludes with a set of policy recommendations to help the EU contribute to a more effective and just energy transition in the region.
Public perceptions of the green transition
BiEPAG conducted a regional public opinion survey in March-April 2023.6 The survey showed there is widespread support for the green transition. An overwhelming 71% of respondents across the Western Balkans believe their countries should primarily derive energy from renewable sources by 2050 (see Chart 1). Equally encouraging, a similar proportion of participants (67%) support increased investment in renewables domestically as a response to the energy crisis – indicating that citizens might be prepared to support a greater allocation of public funds to increasing production capabilities for green energy
Click to Green-Power-Politics-External-Actors-and-Energy-Transition-in-the-Western-Balkans download the Biepag publication
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