Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 39
17 – 31 JANUARY 2023
EKSKLUSIVELY FOR “ARGUMENTUM“
The renowed diplomatic analyst, Dr. Jorgji KOTE “ dots the “i”s and crosses the “ ts” on 4 major events in only 1000 words.
1.Why Balkans in Davos? This question is posed after the 6 Western Balkan leaders were up in Davos from 16 – 19 January. The Davos World Economic Forum brings together the top leaders and experts of the largest states and international organizations, where they exchange ideas and visions on the world future in the most vital areas. However, the region leaders have exaggerated by going every year in that Forum, which looks more like alpine tourist tours. Moreover, when the problematics of Western Balkans is well-known worldwide, since there is hardly any world, european and regional forum that had not dealt with it – the EU Summit in Brussels on 30 June, in Prague on 6 October and Tirana Summit on 6 December 2022, without mentioning the “ Balkans Summer Theatre” with a forum in each regional capital. Yet, once they were back home, the troubles started afresh and new conflicts broke out in the region. This happened with Serbia against Kosovo, whose two leaders have since long ago in their tables the German text and the European draft for the possible agreement given by the 5 envoyes of the biggest powers. Mr. Abazovic who since 6 months ago is only an outgoing Premier would do much better to have stayed in Podgorica and lead the caretaker government, since things there are going from “the frying pan into the fire” As to Bosnia, its worries are well-known; Skopja and Tirana are indeed opening their EU accession negotiations but it is high time for them to work hard, amidst several affairs and scandals in Tirana and the new crisies with Sofia for Skopje, which could postpone negotiations indeed to “greek calendas”
2. “Like day and night! It is the German Agreement dating back to year 1972 and the new European project for Belgrade and Pristina; although the expectation for that model is to have a “ win – win” situation. It’s enough to throw a glance to these two very similiar models and see the sharp differences. First, unlike Bonn and Berlin in 1972, the setting, ground and climate in Belgrade – Pristine is poisoned and undermined, amidst numerous regional and other conflicts, with its climax the russian aggression against Ukraine. 50 years ago it was Deténte and the famous “Ostpolitik”, whereas today Belgrade is only going astray from the European reconciliation spirit. In 1972 Bonn was led by nobelist Brandt, whereas today in Belgrade is Vuçiç, Milosevic’s former Minister of Information! The Federal German Republic recognized immediately and condemned nazi crimes and Holocaust, whereas Serbia is ignoring to do that even now, 24 years after the military intervention there. Two Germanies didn’t have any conflict between them, apart from the different ideological system, they were parts of the same nation, whereas Serbia and Kosovo not; Western Germany made the historic conciliation with France and they co-founded the EU within 5 years with four other countries. Whereas Serbia is still “ way below” with its “ Open Balkans” defying the Berlin Process.
As to the European draft with 10 articles, 5 are just german “ copy&paste”. The remaining 4 articles provide amendments much in Serbia’s favour, which certainly add Pristina’s headaches. Unlike East Germany, with this project, Kosovo in practical terms would have no recognition and no membership to the UN and perhaps not even to the EU. Besides, Serbia cannot make even a step forward without Russian and now Chinese consent. When 5 decades ago, it was Soviet Union together with USA, France and UK that undertook and guaranteed the fastest possible signing and implementation of the Agreement! Whereas today, Kosovo is “ a thorn in the flesh” both for Russia and China. Likewise, there is no obligation for Serbia to discontinue the de-recognition campaigns, which at that time did not exist either. The highlight in the new draft is the primary demand to establish the association of communes with serbian majority and recognize the authority of the Serbian Ortodox Church, which at that time were unknown. Another ambigious point relates to Kosovo’s independence, which is not mentioned, even with a rider, as Western Germany did in 1972, adding a statement that it will continue its work for the country’s re-unification. Most importantly, the previous deal was final and with instant effect; whereas the new draft, even when signed will remain intermediate, without deadlines and safeguards, probably following again the principle “ treat one as mother’s but the other as step mother’s baby”
3. No news on our Resolution in Strasbourg even after the Winter session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe held in Strasbourg from 26 – 29 January 2023. Nothing was mentioned for the public, especially for what was pumped with much glamour last october, when PM Rama unleashed batteries with grave accusations against Strasbourg for Dick Marty’s Resolution of December 2010 on the investigation of charges for trafficking of human beings. Over three months passed since then, but we know nothing on the procedures for replacing the old with the draft resolution tabled by Albania. Certainly, these procedures are complicated and take time due to many diplomatic efforts; since accelerated or “ over night” procedures do not hold water there! Yet, they should tell us at what point are the relevant procedures and their prospect; hoping they would not be postponed to “ 36 August” as the saying goes here. Otherwise, the proverbial Shakespearen saying “ Much ado about nothing” will come once again true!
4. Even “ General Winter” failed! We are referring to Putin’s “ secret weapon” as they consider in Russia the freezing winter in Europe, which could have brought it to knees due to the lack of gas, energy and foodstuffs. But neither General Winter could not help Putin this time; the forecasted ice-cold did not occur; besides, Europe succeeded to satisfy its energy needs with other alternative sources. Meanwhile, the USA, the EU and other allies will soon deliver the most powerful tanks “Abrams” and “Leopard 2” to Ukraine, apart from the additional 2 billion and 500 billion Euro as financial aids. Very soon, Ukraine could launch the spring general offensive, in the first anniversary of Russian aggression, which apparently as they say “ went there for wool but it could return shorn”
© 2023 Argumentum
