By Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi*
In recent years, Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare strategies in the Western Balkans, employing a blend of direct and indirect tactics to secure its geopolitical interests. This analysis will delve into Russia’s strategies, particularly its use of proxy actors, to undermine the region’s aspirations for closer integration with NATO and the European Union.
Russia’s hybrid warfare in the Balkans involves both direct and indirect tactics. These tactics include media manipulation, cyberattacks, and the use of proxy actors such as Serbia, Republika Srpska, and the Serbian Orthodox Church. Let me start by providing a bit of historical background.
Historically, Russia’s involvement in the Balkans dates back to Tsarist times (Khomyakov for Slavophile 1839 and Franjo Zah for “Slavic living space”, with a vision of uniting Slavic peoples under Russian leadership. Than also Serbia with Nacertanje by Ilia Garasanin. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in the region remain strong. I thing we know the Dugi’s plan for the Eur-Asia plans, the multipolarity of the world, Moscow- Pekin coalition (today BRICS, etc.) In fact, President Vladimir Putin has described the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” indicating his intent to restore Russian influence, particularly in regions like the Balkans and Ukraine.
Now, let’s look at some of the key methods Russia employs in its hybrid warfare strategy.
Based on theoretical analysis we found that Russia toward Western Balkan countries, use two models of influence, in direct form and indirect form, in indirect form with to two types, first through proxy state actors (Serbia, Republika Srpska) and second proxy non-state actors (Orthodox Church, associations, organizations, various interest groups, political parties, media, etc.)
The difference between the direct and indirect form lies in the engagement of plan implementation. In the direct form, it affects the Proxy itself, while in the indirect form, it uses the Proxy to create other Proxies.
One of the primary tactics is **media manipulation**. Russian-controlled outlets, such as Sputnik and Russia Today, spread disinformation tailored to the region. These narratives often exploit ethnic tensions and historical grievances, creating divisions within and between countries in the Balkans. By controlling the media narrative, Russia can influence public opinion and undermine trust in Western institutions like NATO and the EU.
Another key aspect of hybrid warfare is **cyberattacks and electoral manipulation**. Russia has interfered in several elections, particularly in Montenegro and North Macedonia, to support pro-Russian or anti-Western candidates. By manipulating electoral processes, Russia aims to destabilize political systems and maintain influence through political leaders who are sympathetic to its goals.
But perhaps the most critical part of Russia’s hybrid strategy is the use of **proxy actors**. These actors can be divided into state and non-state categories. On the state side, Serbia and Republika Srpska are crucial allies for Russia in the Balkans. Serbia’s historical and cultural ties to Russia make it a key partner in resisting Western influence. Similarly, Republika Srpska, an autonomous entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, aligns closely with Moscow’s geopolitical objectives, supporting separatist movements and opposing NATO integration.
On the non-state side, Russia uses entities such as the Serbian Orthodox Church, pro-Russian media outlets, and civil society groups to exert influence more covertly. These actors play a significant role in shaping public opinion and creating a favorable environment for Russian intervention.
To illustrate these tactics, let’s briefly consider two case studies: Montenegro and North Macedonia.
In **Montenegro**, Russia strongly opposed the country’s NATO membership and was even implicated in a coup attempt in 2016 aimed at overthrowing the pro-Western government. Despite these efforts, Montenegro successfully joined NATO in 2017. However, recent political developments show continued Russian and Serbian influence, particularly in elections and census processes, which are manipulated to favor pro-Russian candidates.
I want to mention the tweet status of Igor Dodik son of Millorad Dodik who said that he helped the prime minister of Montenegro Spajic to build the political party.
In **North Macedonia**, Russia’s goal was to block the country’s accession to NATO by supporting anti-Western media and political movements. Leaked documents revealed that Russian agents financed pro-Russian outlets and politicians, stirring ethnic tensions and opposition to the Prespa Agreement, which resolved the country’s name dispute with Greece. Despite these efforts, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020, although Russian interference continues to pose challenges.
We must remember the influence of Russia on the 2016 U.S. presidential election, particularly through the dissemination of fake news originating from Macedonia. Given Russia’s significant impact on elections in various Western Balkan countries and beyond, our Institute has adopted and is currently investigating elections using the term ‘geopolitical elections.’ This approach reflects the growing recognition of external geopolitical forces shaping electoral outcomes.
The broader implication of Russia’s hybrid warfare in the Western Balkans is that it is part of a larger geopolitical strategy to challenge Western dominance and promote a multipolar world order. By destabilizing the Balkans, Russia not only weakens NATO and the EU but also strengthens its influence over this strategically important region.
In conclusion, Russia’s hybrid warfare in the Western Balkans is highly effective because it exploits the region’s vulnerabilities—ethnic divisions, weak political institutions, and cultural ties to Russia. Countering this influence requires a coordinated Western response that includes strengthening democratic institutions, cybersecurity, and independent media.
The stakes are high. If the Western Balkans continue to be destabilized, it will not only affect regional security but also have wider implications for global stability.
*The Speech by Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi at the International Conference on “The Impact of Russian Aggression in Ukraine on European Geopolitics” Organized by the OCTOPUS Institute
The author is a researcher at the Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “OCTOPUS”
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