Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi
Senior Researcher at Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “OCTOPUS” and profesor at UNI College
Within just a few days, Russia provoked the West from the north to the southeast, demonstrating that at two strategic points – from the Black Sea to the Adriatic – it relies on two key anchors: Kaliningrad in the north and Serbia in the south.
Russian Intelligence in Support of Vučić’s Regime Consolidation
On September 15, 2025, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), via the state agency TASS, warned that on November 1 the European Union would organize a “Serbian Maidan” in Serbia, precisely on the anniversary of the Novi Sad train station tragedy. This warning is no coincidence: it is a classic Russian psychological operation, combining symbolism (the tragic anniversary) and destabilizing analogy (parallels with Ukraine in 2014) to construct the perception that the West is planning coups in the Slavic space. The objective: to generate fear and mobilize the population around Vučić’s regime, positioning him as the defender against a foreign conspiracy.
In line with this narrative, according to pro-government media, around 140 mobilizing rallies have been organized across Serbia in support of Vučić and against blockades. These serve as an infrastructure for controlled response: rehearsals designed to neutralize anti-government protests by balancing them with orchestrated “counter-protests.” Vučić himself has declared that the “color revolution” has failed, proclaiming not only victory over the opposition, but also the West’s failure to overthrow him, since he has consistently accused them of organizing the protests. This discourse is part of the groundwork for his political triumph over any civic movement.
Vučić’s consolidation of power is not limited to rallies: it extends to the total control of the security apparatus. The dismissal of Spasoje Vulević, commander of the Special Anti-Terrorist Unit (SAJ), is a key example. Vulević publicly stated: “Minister Ivica Dačić and Police Director Dragan Vasiljević had informed me that President Vučić did not want an armed formation outside his absolute control”. This move demonstrates that Vučić is ensuring the elimination of any autonomy within Serbia’s security structures that might act against him. It also discourages protesters: once they know that every sector of the security apparatus serves Vučić’s interests, then any change in circumstances would have to escalate either into civil war or into surrender. Civil war is an almost unattainable initiative, as it requires special resources and external support.
After strengthening authoritarian rule and silencing every serious opposition voice, Vučić will become the sole option in elections, since he plans to bring Serbia to both presidential and parliamentary elections by mid or late next year. Potentially, he may even bring Tomislav Nikolić back into politics, in a Putin–Medvedev style arrangement.
Why Russia Needs an Irreplaceable Vučić in Serbia
This consolidation makes Serbia an unquestionable proxy of Russia in the Western Balkans. For the EU and the U.S., it creates a regime with no visible alternative: either Vučić is accepted as a partner, or access to Serbia is lost entirely. This situation imposes on the West the interests of the Vučić–Putin axis and narrows its diplomatic room for maneuver. Most likely, even diplomacy aimed at pulling Serbia out of Russia’s orbit will only produce another Trojan horse for Moscow within the West’s security perimeter.
During the same period, Russia has carried out drone provocations in Poland, Romania, and, reportedly, Estonia. All of these are NATO member states. These actions, combined with the warning regarding Serbia, align along what was once known as the “sanitary cordon,” stretching from the Baltic to the Adriatic. For Moscow, this constitutes a red line in silent negotiations: a zone where it demands not to be challenged and where its reinforcement is tolerated, but not transgression. Serbia is the pivotal point of this line, where Russia leverages a local partner to test NATO’s limits.
An additional provocation in the Western Balkans coming from Serbia is the announcement of its newly acquired Israeli-made weapon system, with a strike range of up to 300 km. This development grants Serbia new capabilities that affect not only Kosovo, but also Bosnia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and beyond.
The Compromise of No Compromise
All these elements, the SVR’s warning for November 1, the 140 pro-regime rallies, the dismissal of Vulević, the plan to bring back Nikolić, the drone provocations, the “sanitary cordon,” and the 300 km Israeli weapon—point to a new reality: Serbia is transforming not only into a “little Russia,” but also into Moscow’s experimental theater in Europe.
Containing Serbia and Russia has become imperative. Any strategy to detach Serbia from Russia’s orbit must be built with caution and can no longer rely on the dangerous approach of “stabilitocracy” or “appeasement politics.”
Such a strategy must include not only the traditional Western Balkan states but also Croatia, Slovenia, and Bulgaria, all of which play a key role in the architecture of regional security.
If this approach is absent, the Western Balkans risk becoming an extension of the threatening cordon against Euro-Atlantic security. Such a scenario would not only consolidate Russian-Serbian influence but would also open new avenues for China’s expansion in the region—turning the crisis into a multidimensional challenge, far more difficult to manage.
/Argumentum.al
