Dr. Jorgji KOTE| ARGUMENTUM
Grand Master in Diplomacy*
Yes, one could say with a loud voice that thanks to its many acts, facts, steps and diplomatic efforts in vital areas, Azerbaijan has indeed become a significant geopolitical actor and factor in Southern Caucasus and beyond. The latest testimony hereby is the agreement on a Peace Memorandum with Armenia initialled on 8 August in the White House, at the presence of President Trump, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and the Armenian Premier, Nikol Pashinyan.
This Memorandum which crowns month-long negotiations between the two countries is an important peace-making achievement with a major echo and effects for the settlement of other conflicts in Europe and elsewhere.
Its significance becomes more notable when one refers to the bitter record of over three decades of animosities between Azerbaijan and Armenia; moreover given their key geostrategic location, the unfortunate catalogue with six wars and immense human, material and financial losses for both sides.
In this article we shall dwell on Azerbaijan, a land with widely recognized values and traditions, the first state to allow in 1918 women’s voting right, two years before the USA and 10 years before Great Britain. Besides, it is the first Muslim secular democratic republic established in 1918 which in 1920 was attached through force to Soviet Union.
This historic peace deal was brokered thanks to President Trump’s personal mediation. There are several causes and reasons behind this successful story, starting up with the hostilities which used to be their “co-travellers” of their policies and armies during the last 35 years after the dismemberment of Soviet Union. In this background there are also plenty of rifts, unrests and conflicts related to the destiny of the autonomous region of Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan’s enclave, Nakhchivan, the largest worldwide with an area of 5500 square km and only 44 km away from Azerbaijan. These do also remind us of massive deportations of Azerbaijanis folks after the war in 1988 – 1989, the devastations following the war of Karabakh in 1994, the 2 – month long war in September 2022, the 44 day war in 2020, the population displacements, the destruction of Azerbaijan’s cultural, religious and church artefacts, the numerous disappeared and many others killed in both countries.
It was exactly this accumulated intensity and complexity of Azerbaijan – Armenian crises that “put out of sight” many diplomatic efforts by the USA, Russia, Turkey and even the Agreement reached in Minsk in 1994. Due to several grievances between the leaderships of both countries, the international mediation did also fail to yield genuine results.
Making a digression here, it is indeed an unfortunate coincidence for Minsk as a mediation venue for peace accords; because during the years 2015-2016, the international deals Minsk 1 and 2 of the so-called “Normandie format” with the participation of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine failed to lead to reconciliation and prevent the Russian aggression against Ukraine on 24 February 2022. It nullified both these accords, turning Minsk into a geopolitical unlucky place.
As it was mentioned above, the former autonomous region of Nagorno Karabakh with only 145.000 inhabitants and area of 4400 square km has always been “ an apple of disaccord” between Azerbaijan and Armenia with several actions and reactions. As a remnant with negative effects from the Soviet Union time, when although in the Azerbaijan’s territory its majority were Armenian until finally Aserbaijan retook it in 2023. Here it should be clarified that Azerbaijan has never subdued Armenians to maltreatment and suppression.
Likewise, it is important to highlight that the Azerbaijan’s state authorities and the government are doing the utmost not to remain “ prisoners” of their bitter past; certainly, they refer to it continuously but mainly to draw lessons from, to explain where both sides have committed errors and most importantly to look forward and work together for peace, security, stability and social welfare for the peoples of both countries and the national minorities, including the enclaves.
Diplomatic Baku is pursuing this peace-making policy in view of pacifying and stabilizing its multi-faceted relations with Armenia, as well as with Russia, Iran, Turkey and other states in the region.
On this basis and with a view to sign soon the Peace Agreement of the 8th August, the Azerbaijan’s leadership is urging Armenia to adopt the required constitutional amendments in harmony with international law and give up any territorial claims and namely on Nagorno Karabakh, so that Baku would sign the said Agreement.
This is important since, as the latest 35 year old experience indicates, if they continue with an iron-clad tongue and with empty rhetoric of the past, then nothing good would come to these two countries and to other neighbouring states. Although these two countries have immense natural resources and assets and numerous cultural values, short-sighted and aggressive territorial policies would only deprive them from many political, economic and military advantages.
It is evident that Azerbaijanis political leaders follow the advice of Albert Eistein that “ peace cannot be held by force but through understanding” and the statement by the famous US Senator William Fulbright that “understanding one’s ideas produces more security than submarines”
This is also clearly seen in the political discourses, TV interviews and speeches of President Ilham Aliyev and other Azerbaijanis high officials in different international events.
Official Baku has been also showing this daring and visionary approach in the recent months after the unprecedented tensed relations with Russia, with which it has maintained good relations. This tensed situation started after an Azerbaijan’s commercial plane bound to land in Grozny was shot down in the Russian territory, inflicting 38 human losses and many others wounded.
Despite the persistence and ongoing demands from Baku for the Russian authorities to bring those responsible to justice and for the financial compensation of the families of the victims and those injured, in keeping with international law and as Aserbaijan has acted vis à vis Russia in a previous similar case, Moscow has kept silent. Except for a delayed apology, it has not and does not accept to do that. Even worse, it has escalated the attacks and maltreatment on the Aserbaijan’s citizens in Russia as it occurred a few months ago in Ekaterinbourg, where two Azerbaijanis citizens were killed, the bombardment of its petrol warehouses in Ukraine and others.
Baku has responded with dignity to these attacks and has undertaken its proper measures against Russian improper actions. Actually, behind this Russia’s show of force hides its discontent and jealousy due to Azerbaijan edging closer to the USA and EU, as well as its stabilization and strengthening of relations with neighbouring states. These mature and visionary attitudes in pursuit of peace and regional stability by Azerbaijan have boosted its image and prestige in the international arena; accordingly, it has become an active, and in some cases even a defining actor and factor in that hot region.
On the other hand, these positive steps have overshadowed the Russian role and impact in Azerbaijan, in Armenia and in other former Soviet countries; this has frustrated Moscow which is seeking revenge. However, it is unlikely that Russia’s diplomacy of force and coercion could challenge Baku’s soft power and appeasement diplomacy; besides, Azerbaijan enjoys broader support from other countries and the USA and EU, in particular. Moreover, because with his long experience and prudent leadership, President Aliyev and other high authorities in Baku have shown constraint and moderation, trying in every step the de-escalation of the situation, without “pouring oil into the fire” aimed at maintaining the fragile geopolitical balances in that region and beyond.
In this case, let us stress that without excluding any exaggeration in its past, Azerbaijan has continuously adhered to the well-known provisions of fundamental international documents – The UN Charter, Helsinki Final Act and OSCE, European Human Rights Convention of the Council of Europe and the relevant Minsk Group. They are sticking to this policy even now, three months after the peace deal with Armenia. President Aliyev in different statements and in a recent long televised interview has clearly outlined the political, economic and diplomatic dimensions of his own country, both vis à vis Armenia and to the other neighbours.
The good news is that there are signs and messages indicating that Azerbaijan’s leaders and the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have realized that instead of stumbling blocks, sustainable peace demands building blocks, highways, increased connectivity among the territories and the closed enclave in Nakhchivan and communication among people; aimed at bringing them closer, understanding and providing confidence building measures, one of the most sacred OSCE principles and values.
Therefore, Azerbaijan continues to build bridges, bypasses and highways rather than walls and fences. In this line of action it has developed and is implementing useful infrastructural projects from north to south and from east to west, designed to increase their frequency and modernize connections with all nearby states. Thus, it is producing a good tradition, combining infrastructural modernization with economic, trade and cultural exchanges; they are very important for they lay down the foundations of the proper climate and environment, boosting mutual understanding and trust among them.
All these measures and naming the highway connecting both countries “ Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”(TRIPP) accompanied with the relevant assurances for the right of project development for a 99 year old period with USA, it intends among others to erode the Russian impact on both these states and in the region and the substantial increased US economic presence there.
Needless to say, this is a long expected geopolitical shift. Likewise, it is a precious lesson for other countries while resolving their different disagreements in favour of peace; although it may be never perfect and against any conflict and war. Because, as Beniamin Franklin used to say “there is no good war and bad peace”!
These actions and developments in the field of economic, cultural and charm diplomacy are promising and convincing signs which indicate that Azerbaijan is making concrete multi-dimensional efforts to foster the climate, environment and atmosphere for the settlement of conflicts accumulated since long ago between these two countries.
While referring to economic diplomacy, it is common knowledge that the EU has as well applied it widely although not always successfully, especially with Russia, guided by the naive idea that by promoting economic cooperation, Russia would be peaceful and not attack any country, since it would place economic interests and prosperity over all.
President Trump has also attached priority to economic diplomacy with his Abraham Agreements during his first Presidency and now with his doctrine of transactionalism. However, although in principle and in spirit this diplomatic dimension is useful since it complies with people’s aspirations for peace and prosperity, this is not always the case in practice; particularly in countries where the real roots and causes of crises or conflicts do not lie in the economy, but in political, historic and traditional factors, in the lack of trust, ethnic hatred, nationalism and other evils.
This is why, without giving up its economic development, modernization and cooperation, where to Azerbaijan is setting a good pattern, they should step up efforts for a genuine and lasting peace with Armenia, avoiding taboos, prejudices, distrust and other hindering factors. However, this is not done through tanks, planes and missiles, but mainly through soft power, cultural and charm diplomacy; and always on the basis of mutual political will. This is exactly what Azerbaijan is seeking to do both in its domestic and foreign policy.
Let me point our here that while writing down these ideas and thoughts I am referring not only to several media and diplomatic sources, but also to my diplomatic experience in the last 30 years in Tirana, in Berlin and in Brussels; there I have attended several economic and cultural events hosted by the government and diplomacy of Azerbaijan in Europe with a wide – reaching echo and impact, especially in the gas and energy area. They do also show the defining role of such multilateral events in better understanding and assessing the numerous advantages of peace and economic and cultural cooperation among peoples, particularly among neighbours, albeit their previous animosities.
Given the above-mentioned, unlike their previous negative precedents, there exists a much greater confidence that the Peace Agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be functional and sustainable; moreover, it will pave up the way to new even larger opportunities contributing to social and economic prosperity in both countries. This would have extremely positive effects for peace, stability and security, associated with a considerable social and economic welfare growth in all the states of this immense geopolitical region.
Finally, without excluding the role of official Baku, now “ the ball” is in the field of Yerevan.
*Grand Master is a high presidential title awarded to personalities who have excelled with their outstanding expertise
