Dr. Jorgji KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
From 5 – 10 May 2024, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping will visit Paris, Belgrade and Budapest. This Chinese top level tour in Europe is a remarkable political event. It takes place when the EU has entered into the defining election campaign for the EU Parliament due on 6 – 9 June. While is seeking answers to several challenges, where despite the existing tensions, the Chinese contribution is a “ Must”! Suffice to mention climatic changes, the world trade, the crises in Ukraine and in Middle East, which are decisive for world peace, security and stability!
The first and major stop of President Xi Jinping in Paris reconfirms the special Chinese – French role and relations in the world political stage. This “ state visit” i.e. with the highest protocol ceremonial coincides with the 60th Anniversary of their diplomatic relations, an appropriate historic opportunity and background for talks with a constructive approach albeit the turbulent waters in recent years. China is the third largest economic partner for France in Asia; both are permanent members of the UN Security Council, with a large impact on international relations. President Macron is keeping his promise to visit Peking and invite his Chinese counterpart in Paris every year.
The second stop of this visit, Belgrade is very active with China, specifically in the “ Belt and Road Project”. Besides, as the US and the EU do also qualify it, Serbia is a key state for stability in Western Balkans, to which China attaches special importance. In 2009 Peking signed with Belgrade a strategic alliance and the first deal on free trade with a Central and European country.
The visit in Budapest does also show the high level of relations with Hungary, representative of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) which is active in the mechanism of cooperation China – CEE, with telling indicators in vital bilateral areas.
Through Serbia and Hungary China intends to strengthen cooperation and partnership with Central and Eastern Europe.
The backstage and “ scenograpy” of this visit was prepared through the meeting last November in the States between President Xi jinping with President Joe Biden, which helped ease their tensions. Last December President Xi Jinping received in Peking the three top EU leaders, on 15 April the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and on 26 April the US Secretary of State Blinken, who was in Peking following growing tensions with USA most recently.
This visit is undoubtedly a good opportunity to analyse the policies of these three and other European states; identifying why not their errors, faults and failures vis à vis Peking, not excluding Chinese “sins” as well. On this basis, they will provide sustainable solutions with a real politic pragmatism, neither through ideological and economic sanctions nor via military confrontations.
There are credible reasons to believe that this European tour will incarnate the well-known Chinese “ scharm and soft power diplomacy”. It will be hopefully accompanied with positive vision, moderate tones and efforts; all these designed to de-escalate the situation and look forward to the future cooperation. The primary goal would be to explain and level out different misunderstandings and misperceptions from and on both sides.
It is expected that President Xi Jinping would forward appeasing messages, dwelling largely on unifying pillars and leaving aside division lines.
President Xi’s has underscored that the new epoch of dangers and turbulences, including nuclear threats where the world has entered, makes cooperation among leaders of great powers a priority and emergent necessity.
Accordingly, the Chinese President could also renew the message that “ together we may offer more stability and security to the world”
This applies particularly to the crises in Ukraine, which would be on top of political “ menu” in Paris, aimed at bringing different viewpoints by the parties closer. More specifically, regarding the Peace Conference, due to be held in Switzerland on 15 – 16 June, China has demanded the Russian presence; otherwise that Conference would have no sense, or it should bear a different name, which would again be meaningless. Here one should recall the telling sentence by President Xi jinping that ” all should be in the round table and no one on the menu carte”. This could imply the Russian presence at the conference but also a sort of implied objection of Ukraine’s occupation. This issue is decisive for the relations between the West and China and the war destiny in Ukraine. The current western crisis diplomacy should listen to all actors and factors, without excluding any alternative, even less when it comes from China.
Another major aspect, especially in the encounter with President Macron is easing and strengthening Chinese – European relations, without impairing but also without being dependent by the alliance with the USA.
During his visit last year in China and also on 25 April, in his speech in the famous Sorbonne University, President Macron emphasized the need for “ strategic autonomy from the USA”; calling not to be their vassals and expressing himself against crises that are irrelavant to Europe and that hinder the functioning of this autonomy. This is a delicate point for the EU, given the its security interests with the USA, on which China has not failed to show understanding, albeit its critical remarks, overdone at times for the US dependency; however, China is proving to be more realistic most recently.
Neverthless, President Xi’s focus will be on the most significant political, diplomatic, economic and cultural dossiers; something natural given the prevailing mutual interests and benefits; thus, even differences and objections may be more easily addressed, helping to solve other more complex questions.
China upholds the view that as long as we adhere to mutual respect and seek shared elements, despite the differences, bilateral relations may be sustainably promoted.
In more concrete terms, Xi Jinping will refer to the message of China – EU Summit last December that “ decoupling and de-risking with China are not realistic and productive options.” Or, as he emphasized during his meeting with Chancellor Scholz “ Relations with China are not a risk but a development opportunity”. In this regard, China seeks ongoing dialogue instead of sanctions, punitive measures and economic represails which have yielded no result.
This is why France and other western countries should show geopolitical realism with China. True, their new strategies consider China as partner, competitor and systematic rival, claiming that their foreign policy be oriented and guided by values and principles”; yet, given the current state of play, their implementation, especially in terms of bilateral economy and investments is quasi impossible.
Perhaps these factors made Chancellor Scholz start his 3 – day visit in China in commercial Schongqing, among the largest world cities with 32 million inhabitants, with 84 German companies there; then he was in economic Shangai and ended up in political Peking. That was his second visit in China in two years, while his predecessor, Chancellor Merkel was 14 times in 16 years in power!
At this point, western states should be frank, i.e. not blame China for all their geopolitical errors or failures or even for increased military spending; as to the latter, the latest data by the Swedish Peace Institute (SIRI), reveal that China accounts only for 12 per cent whereas the USA for 37 per cent of world military spending; NATO Member States make over half of them!
Further on, no one is to blame for France, Germany and in the EU as a whole on account of their great economic dependency on China; although their benefits are not lacking either. Thus, in 2019, German sales accounted for 48,5 per cent while French brandy 99,8 per cent of EU exports to China. Meanwhile, economy& trade for the EU, France and Germany has become decisive for the survival of governmental coalitions and electoral success there. In 2023, the EU had only 1 per cent economic growth, Germany 0,1 per cent from 1, 3 per cent forecasted and France only 0,8 from 2,9 per cent in 2022. Whereas Chinese economy grew up 5,3 from the projected 4,5 per cent. Thus, for the 8th consecutive year, China remains the largest trading partner for Germany and the third largest for France in Asia.
Par consequence, without exports and investments in China, the French and German economies have very little chances of survival; but behind lie many electoral promises.
Hereby, the statement by Ding Chun, professor of European studies at Fudan University that ” Germany not only cannot be decoupled, but it needs to keep and step up economic an trade exchanges with China” does also apply to EU, France, Hungary, Serbia and other EU Member States.
However, despite debates and controversies, the statement by Chinese Ambassador Wu Ken in March in Berlin that German companies have given their “ vote of confidence” to Chinese market holds true. “ The ugly truth” as they say is that albeit many recent debates on the future of economic cooperation with China, the German, French and European economic power is closely connected with trade, economic relations and investments with China.
Well, trade conflicts seem unavoidable not only with China but even among western partners; such is the case with the long trade war about steels and textiles between US and the EU.
Nonetheless, the talks of the Chinese President, Xi Jinping with the US and European leaders in Washington, Peking and we believe now in Europe prove that from the geopolitical viewpoint, realism and the instinct of survival in western countries will continue to prevail over idealism, just as realpolitik over missionary diplomacy.
To cut the story short, without the “alliance of convenience” with China, the European states would find it very difficult to succeed in their social, economic, environmental and other policies.
This is why President Xi Jinping’s current tour in Europe is welcome!
© 2024 Argumentum
