REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 57
17 – 31 OCTOBER 2023
Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « i’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 3 major diplomatic components with 10 major events in only 1000 words
1.Much ado but nothing! It’s not “ much ado for nothing” by Shakespeare here but the deadlock in the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo. Despite the other two well – known conflicts, this dialogue and the positions of both sides were at the epicenter of international politics and the EU, in particular. On 20 October, it dispatched to Pristina and Belgrade the diplomatic “ fabulous five”, which handed over a new modern European draft to overcome this impasse. This issue was discussed with priority on 23 october in the EU Foreign Misters’ Meeting in Luxemburg and in its Summit on 26 October in Brussels. Prime Minister Kurti with a fine diplomatic move caught the EU leaders and President Vuçiç unaware, accepting to sign the new agreement and the draft-Asociation, with the condition admitted by the EU that it would pass through the Constitutional Court in Pristina. Whereas President Vuçiç stood loyal to his previous refractory stances even after the Letter by Macron, Scholz and Meloni on 27 October.
This was also a central point in the EU – US Summit in the White House on 19 October. In the meantime, the UN Security Council discussed on this issue on 25 october at the presence of Kosovo’s President and Serbia’s Prime Minister. Well, many intensive meetings and forums, but nothing in “the basket”.
ARGUMENTUM in its Realpolitik in the latest moths has warned that the deadlock in the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade cannot be overcome due to the wrong Serbian positions, the erroneous policies pursued by the EU mediators, with much more favourable attitudes for Serbia, although Belgrade continues to trample every agreement under foot.
Now the diplomatic efforts will continue following the principle “draw the rope back but don’t cut it” until the end of European and American elections 2024. Hoping that the USA and the EU will rectify their target aim, they will address this dialogue not only with new structures and people but above all with a new strategic paradigm, especially vis à vis Serbia.
2. Five problematic ” B’s” with Greece, which in Albanian language signify “ Bust, Beleri, Prison( Burg), Swear( Betim) and Brussels! These 5 “ B’s” remind us of 26 October, the ceremony of unveiling the bust dedicated to former Greek Prime Minister K. Mitsotakis, the father of the current Greek PM in Derviçan, Gjirokastra district. PM Rama kept the promise he gave last December there to his Greek counterpart; true, a gesture of good will for a historic Greek leader. However, no one had imagined that this bust would be unveiled in such diplomatically “ice-cold” circumstances, which makes last December seem to be far away. The arrest two days prior to 14 May Local elections and holding in detention for over 5 months the newly elected Mayor of Himara, Fredi Beleri has tensed the relations with Grece.
The shuttle diplomacy and demarches hitherto have yielded no result; our side insists that this is an internal judiciary case. But the Greek side arguments that justice should keep on its proceeding, as in every other democratic state; but, until the trial day, under our Constitution and the European Convention of Human Rights, as the Greek Vice Foreign Minister Kotsiras stated on 28 october in the village Bularat, Beleri should be allowed to swear in office as Mayor of Himara. But this has fallen in “deaf ears” in Tirana. Par consequence, failing to respond positively to these three “ B’s” endangers the final “B”, i.e. Brussels and specifically the opening of negotiations this December.
Besides, Mitsotakis could not attend that ceremony since he was in Brussels in the EU Summit. PM Rama should have mentioned this fact to soften his absence. After all, western leaders do not attend events like this devoted to their biological political fathers. But, most importantly, Mitsotakis could not go to Derviçan, because he has received no positive signal for resolving Beleri case. Therefore, the “ B” of the bust could not compensate and less replace the three other “ B”s.
3. Hamasi divides the world after the terrorist attack against Israel on 7 October; within western states and in the relations among them in the highest world forums. In Germany, France, the UK and elsewhere large pro-palestinian and pro-israeli rally protests are staged; however, the former are much more massive and violent. The situation in these states has become so much troublesome that on 29 October, the largest German newspaper BILD published a 50 – point Manifest appealing for peace, social order, religious tolerance, moderation, respect for women and girls, freedom of expression and the rule of law. The EU in its Summit on 26/27 October in Brussels conducted heated debates on the Final Conclusions; hardly managing to reach a last – minute compromise related to making corridors/ brief pauses for humanitarian purposes but not “a cease fire”, since that could be used by Hamas. This spirit was also reflected in the UN, where 120 states of the Global South adopted a Resolution which was more favourable for Palestine and but bypassing the terrorist Hamas act.
The USA and 15 other states voted against. However, although not binding, this resolution was a minus for the West and was welcomed by Hamas. Things have become even worse as President Erdogan has taken the side of Palestine and Hamas, denouncing the West and threatening Israel in case of further escalation there. This split is an outcome of the Western failed policies in the last 30 years; the attempts for stability in the Middle East and in cooperation with other states in the region but without Palestine; likewise,the democratic deficits of the Israeli government and particularly by PM Netianahu, which instead of improving the atmosphere and the climate have aggravated the situation further; the Palestinian leadership has also proved to be passive and out of touch with the geopolitical realities, leaving more space to Hamas in Gaza. Even the appeal by President Macron to set up an international coalition against Hamas was received with reluctancy by most, including western states. This situation is a great cause of concern for the USA and the EU, especially now, on the eve of the presidential and European elections 2024; certainly, this sounds pleasant music for Hamas, Iran an other anti – western and anti-Israeli states.
© 2023 Argumentum